Taking a look again, I will have to admit I by no means imagined attaining this type of anniversary…however yeah, the Wexboy weblog became 10 years-old previous this month! A adventure that kicked off with this Sirius Actual Property purchase (at an astonishing 0.31 P/B!) in Nov-2011. Which was once clearly a stock-picking excursion de power – noting SRE‘s been a 7-BAGGER+ since. Neatly, aside from I in some way controlled to distract/scare myself out of the location two years later…for a trifling double-digit acquire! And perhaps that’s the place this publish will have to all of a sudden finish, as a result of:
The only BIG lesson maximum buyers nonetheless want to be told is the way to HODL!
However let me be transparent up-front – that is no longer meant to be some lessons-learned victory-lap publish. As buyers, we by no means actually know what’s coming down the street…subsequent yr can be a birthday celebration, or a complete humiliation. And all of us make dumb errors, we repeat them, we are living with them & we in any case transfer on – nice buyers simply make much less errors. And we will’t have the funds for to get disheartened, or to leisure on our laurels – nice buyers (will have to) by no means prevent finding out & adapting ’til the day they in any case go out this nice recreation. To suppose/fake differently is to tempt the gods, which makes making an investment any such uniquely bizarre mixture of self belief…and humility.
That stated, this yr & remaining yr were an speeded up finding out enjoy for me – as is possibly true for all buyers (& everybody we all know). And sure, I do know I’ve promised to put in writing about this – and with a bit of luck percentage some sure learnings & helpful recommendation – in particular in mild of my exact FY-2020 & YTD-2021 efficiency. However I gotta admit, I stay hanging it off…as a result of now I desperately need & want it to be a ultimate epitaph for this (0-) COVID hell we’re nonetheless caught in. [Despite most of the world getting vaxxed since!?] So yeah, that’s clearly one thing I gotta paintings on…
However in the meantime, I’m delighted I’ve in fact controlled to ship that distinctive & rarest of beasts…a public/auditable 10-year funding monitor file by means of the weblog (& my Twitter account). I clearly don’t divulge the true euros/cents of my portfolio, albeit my long-abandoned occupation & my relatives’s safety/long term obviously depend on it – which means that go back of major is solely as essential to me as go back on major, in true family-office taste – however readers & fans have all the time been in a position to evaluate my degree of conviction/chance tolerance by means of my particular % allocation in (disclosed) shares, and by means of (necessarily real-time) monitoring of my (uncommon) incremental buys/sells in the ones shares.
And in go back, I’m way more at the moment in seeing readers draw (& even percentage) their very own conclusions – privately, or publicly – from my stock-picking & funding monitor file so far. To facilitate that, right here’s my annual returns…entire with hyperlinks to my annual efficiency evaluate & exact stock-picks/funding write-ups for every yr.
[NB: I should highlight this 2015 post, where I went back & scrubbed my 2011-2014 performance for consistency…but since it actually lowered my portfolio returns & raised my benchmark returns, we don’t need to rehash those adjustments here.]
[And for reference, this was my 5 year track record back in 2016.]
YTD-2011 (from Nov-Ninth): +7.6% Go back
[Reduced from a +16.4% average return to reflect an actual weighted average return.]
FY-2012: +18.3% Go back
[Reduced from a +20.2% return, primarily to reflect elimination of dividends.]
FY-2013: +19.0% Go back
[Increased from a +18.4% return, to reflect corrected average stake sizes.]
FY-2014: (0.8)% Go back
[Increased from a (1.3)% return, to reflect a return of capital.]
FY-2015: +9.3% Go back
FY-2016: (4.6)% Go back
FY-2017: +26.3% Go back
FY-2018: (13.5)% Go back
FY-2019: +14.9% Go back
FY-2020: +56.4% Go back
YTD-2021 (to Nov-Ninth): +228.9% Go back
For reference, right here’s my H1-2021 efficiency publish:
Now let’s replace it to reach at a YTD-2021 (to Nov-Ninth) index benchmark go back:
And right here’s my Wexboy YTD-2021 (to Nov-Ninth) Portfolio Efficiency, in relation to person winners & losers:
[All gains based on average stake size & 09-Nov-2021 vs. end-2020 share prices. All dividends & FX gains/losses are excluded.]
That’s 33 disclosed portfolio buys over the past decade. Which might glance relatively front-loaded (i.e. most commonly purchased again in 2011 & 2012), however that’s most commonly a serve as of steadily introducing pre-existing holdings from my portfolio…to not point out, I’ve additionally purchased different new (undisclosed) holdings previously few years. So 33 buys over the process a decade is quite consultant of my making an investment (& low turnover) method – IRL, I incessantly shaggy dog story my final ambition was once all the time to stick house, veg out on my sofa, learn annual studies & with a bit of luck uncover a few nice corporations every yr to shop for. So yeah, existence is best…and yeah, I actually do imply that!
So right here’s my Best 10 Winners:
[NB: *No longer quoted, or merged with another business/ticker. **Takeover, or liquidation.]
And my Subsequent 13 Winners:
Which leaves, exactly…my Best 10 Losers:
KR1‘s the most obvious #megamultibagger within the room. However that’s how markets & making an investment in fact works…index/your internet returns necessarily come from a small fraction of shares, as Bessembinder reported some years again (& all VCs intuitively know!). And if you happen to’ve adopted me for some years, you’ll know I’ve all the time regarded as KR1 a #YOLO funding – i.e. a once-in-a-lifetime multi-bagger enlargement alternative (at an absurd worth value) in an rising foundational era/asset category – however NOT some YOLO wager, noting it was once just a 4.5% portfolio allocation for me originally of remaining yr. [Consistent with me recommending all investors should now consider a reasonable 3-5% allocation, via a diversified crypto investment company like KR1 (for example)].
Large image despite the fact that, I’m thrilled I nonetheless personal 4 of my Best 5 winners…I will have to be doing one thing proper, and in any case getting just a little higher at this complete purchase & grasp factor! Or even my different winner – Universe Workforce – was once in any case identified remaining week for its underlying M&A worth (thankfully, regardless of the astonishing 129% be offering top class, I’d already extracted maximum of UNG’s worth again in 2015)! However this doesn’t trade my underlying philosophy…whilst I’ve obviously fascinated about owner-operator fine quality enlargement corporations extra just lately, paying a worth value has constantly remained the important thing to my winners. This was once even true of Google again in 2017 – simply after it changed into Alphabet & simply prior to it changed into a SOTP play for everybody – I estimated the core seek trade was once on an underlying 15.5 P/E more than one (& continues to be reasonable nowadays)! And the similar was once true (for instance) of Apple, which I purchased (& posted about) forward of Buffett, however alas by no means officially disclosed as a Wexboy portfolio protecting – ‘cos who sought after to maintain the fan-boys, let on my own the haters on the time – I purchased it on an ex-cash 10 P/FCF more than one & it’s a 5-BAGGER since!
My win-loss ratio’s helped too – 23 out of 33 shares were winners, a 70% win ratio, on the higher finish of the variety I’ve observed with {most professional} fund managers. Anything else upper is unusual & would affect returns (possibly, by means of an arbitrage/event-driven technique), however I’d argue a decrease win ratio wouldn’t essentially restrict returns in the similar approach…actually, perversely, focused on & accepting a far decrease win ratio may just in fact be the important thing to awesome/best-in-class returns (once more, as any VC would argue)!? And in the meantime…they weren’t essentially multi-baggers, however I’ve additionally loved & exited with regards to 3 in 10 shares by means of takeovers (essentially) & liquidations (that’s 8 winners & 1 loser out of 33 shares).
As for the wall of disgrace…all of us have losers, however the answer guys will like it anyway (& forget about the massive winners), so knock yourselves out! My most effective excuse (or lesson), is how tough it may be to combat international sector/macro tides – rising markets had been a (relative) misplaced motive for the previous decade, however that didn’t prevent me in search of out rising marketplace losers. [Fortunately, my ‘New China’ bet via the VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund was a huge/winning exception – a reminder cherry-picking‘s long been the only viable alternative to increasingly absurd emerging/BRIC-type bucket investing]. For lots of the remaining decade, the similar was once true of useful resource shares…despite the fact that obviously my quixotic (however small) tilt at micro-cap explorers/manufacturers was once remarkably silly in its personal proper! And total, my losers are a reminder how tough making an investment in small/micro-cap corporations with deficient and/or intransigent control can also be, irrespective of value/worth. The only saving grace is that I personal simply 2 of my losers nowadays – which perhaps flip money-good with a real sale/takeover, albeit that is by no means a really perfect thesis to depend on – and having a look again at my go out costs (vs. the chance to take a position somewhere else), I certainly don’t feel sorry about promoting the remainder of my losers!
OK, let’s transfer directly to the grand finale – however first, right here’s my benchmark index returns for the decade. Word my benchmark’s a easy reasonable of the ISEQ, Bloomberg Euro 500, FTSE 100 & S&P 500 – which very best represents my total portfolio – so I’ll escape those element indices too. No surprises there…the United Kingdom’s been dreadful, Europe was once mediocre, while Eire in fact made an outstanding try to stay alongside of the USA (albeit, a lot of its features got here previous within the decade):
And now, in any case, it’s crucial desk of all of them…my Wexboy Portfolio returns over the past decade (vs. my benchmark index go back):
And what an unbelievable adventure & decade it’s been…finishing up with a 10-BAGGER portfolio & a 26.0% pa funding monitor file!
And that’s no longer even counting dividends, that’s an extra couple of % pa. In fact, you’ll be able to argue my fresh/outstanding KR1 features are diluted total…i.e. a 13.8% KR1 stake in 2020 is clearly extra impactful to my these days disclosed portfolio, than my total portfolio. However hi there, in relation to its real-world pound/greenback/euro affect, you’ll be able to wager I’m no longer sweating that difference! And by chance, I’ve loved different undisclosed multi-baggers in my portfolio – in particular within the remaining two years – in Apple (consistent with above), in luxurious & even in (crikey, a distinct segment/alpha-generating) belongings inventory!? To not point out, cell/e-commerce shares – as referred to (obliquely) in my H1-2020 evaluate – considered one of which became out to be my 3rd takeover inventory in simply 9 months & even (in short) surpassed Alphabet in my portfolio!
So sure, total, I feel it’s truthful to believe this public/auditable monitor file as lovely consultant of my exact general (disclosed & undisclosed) portfolio returns over the past decade.
And right here’s to a really perfect Yuletide season – regardless of the lingering COVID angst – and the last decade forward! Would possibly the street stand up to fulfill you…
